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The lowest A/D issues and A/D volume ratios in 1997


In the second half of 1997, the S&P 500 index hit critically low A/D issues and A/D volume ratios three times, as summarized in Table 1 below:

Table 1. Lowest critical A/D volume and A/D issues ratios. S&P 500 index. Second half of 1997.
DateCritical A/D
 Issues Ratio
Critical A/D
 Volume Ratio
Magnitude of
Uptrend
 (Recovery Rally)
Chart and Point
Reference
08/15/19970.080.149.0%Chart #1 - A
10/23/19970.080.111.0%Chart #1 - B
10/27/19970.0020.00312.5%Chart #1 - C

Copyright © 1997-2006 MarketVolume® 

 
Chart #1: Lowest critical A/D volume and A/D issues ratios. S&P 500 index. Second half of 1997. (In the bottom pane, A/D issues ratios are listed at the top and A/D volume ratios at the bottom).
 
Chart #1 - Point A:
On August 15, 1997, the S&P 500 hit critically low A/D issues and A/D volume ratios. Within three trading days, the index advanced by more than 4%. Two months later, the index had recovered by about 9%.
  
Chart 1 - points B and C:Since these two incidents occurred such a short time apart, we could consider them as a single event.A cluster of critically low A/D issues and A/D volume ratios over a short period of time is generally indicative of an extremely bearish sentiment – in this particular case, it would in fact be more appropriate to say that trading was gripped by utter panic.

On October 28, the S&P 500 index traded almost double its daily average volume for 1997. If you refer to a six-month index volume chart of the index for the period between July 1997 and February 1998 (apply a one-day volume moving average (VMA)), you will see the huge volume surge that occurred. This signifies that in the panic that took place, a vast number of low priced shares were being transferred from one group of investors to another. The market became extremely oversold. An exceedingly bearish market sentiment (in this particular case - two days of extremely low A/D ratios readings a short time apart) coupled with a high-volume sell-off: this is a perfect indication of a market that was exceptionally oversold and thus primed for a long-term reversal to the upside. In fact, the day after the October 27, 1997 low, the S&P 500 rallied by more than 4%. Within less than 2 months, the index had recovered by 12%, and by June 1998, the index had gained over 30%. October 27, 1997 is a date worth mentioning for another reason: in the almost 8 years since then (as of the writing of this article), the market has not even come close to matching the exceptionally low AD issues and volume ratios seen on that date.

© MarketVolume.com Team
8/21/2006

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