2/8/2010

No economic data was released in the US today.

On Friday, we suggested that the return of volatility was the key characteristic of this market. Today, the financial press reported that the Dow just had its 10th triple-digit move in 16 trading days.

Rather than worrying that a single, large US financial player may go bankrupt, investors now appear worried entire (European) countries may default. First and foremost, these concerns regard Greece, but other, financially weak constituents of the EU have also been named as further 'problem areas', including Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. Greece's finance minister today announced a boosting of taxes, but the country's unions have announced strikes in retaliation. The main fear is not Greece itself, but a contagion to the rest of the EU.

Perhaps pointing to an upturn in the housing market was today's upgrade of Dow component Home Depot - the world's largest home improvement chain - by Morgan Stanley.

Key economic data for the week starting February 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	10:00 AM WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M (Dec): 0.5% / 1.5%

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE (Dec): -$35.5B / -$36.4B 2:00 PM TREASURY BUDGET (Jan): -$70.0B / -$63.5B

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Jan-30: n.a. / 4602K INITIAL CLAIMS Feb-6: n.a. / 480K RETAIL SALES M/M (Jan): 0.3% / -0.3% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Jan): 0.4% / -0.2% 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Dec): 0.4% / 0.4%

Friday:
	8:30 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Feb P): 74.8 / 74.4