3/12/2010

Economic news released today was said to have sent mixed messages - hence a directionless market according to financial news reporters. The newest consumer sentiment survey was disappointing but positive news emerged from the retail sales front.

The latest Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a 0.3% increase in retail sales (excluding auto sales - a rise of 0.8%). This set of data beat expectations, as consensus estimates had been for a total retail sales decline of 0.2% (and an increase of 0.1% in sales excluding autos).

A more somber tone was however conveyed by the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey. In March, the data came in at 72.5 (consensus estimates; a reading of 74.0). February's reading had been at 73.5.

Even though the indexes have been on a tear over the past few weeks, a number of market analysts see a lack of conviction behind the move, as suggested by relatively weak volume. The major stumbling block from a fundamental perspective continues to be the poor labor market. Some market observers believe we could be trading range-bound at least until the Fed has given its latest verdict on interest rates (see economic data calendar below). On the other hand, from Monday to Thursday, a great deal of economic data will be released, so there should be a number of possible market catalysts.

Key economic data for the week starting March 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE) (Mar): 20.0 / 24.9 9:00 AM NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS) (Jan): n.a. / $63.3B 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Feb): 0.0% / 0.9% CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Feb) (M): 72.6% / 72.6% 1:00 PM NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Mar): 17 / 17

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb): 570K / 591K BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb): 610K / 622K IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Feb):' -0.2% / 1.4% 2:15 PM FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT (Mar): 0.25% / 0.25%

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 1.4% PPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3% PPI Y/Y (Feb) (H): 5.1% / 4.6% PPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.0% / 1.0%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-06: n.a. / 4558K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-13: 450K / 462K CPI M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / -0.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb): 2.3% / 2.6% CPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.4% / 1.6% CURRENT ACCOUNT (Q4): -$119.8B / -$108.0B 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar): 17.6 / 17.6 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3%