Financial News Blog

More bullishness spilled over from yesterday's

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, March 17, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

More bullishness spilled over from yesterday's Fed day. The central bank kept rates unchanged and did not change the wording of the accompanying policy statement. This essentially guarantees at least three months of stability and cheap, ample liquidity for certain large players. This positive backdrop resulted in a further buying frenzy that however invited some selling late in the day, pushing the major indexes back down from new intraday yearly highs. Not surprisingly given the continuation of low interest rates, financials were particularly strong today, collectively ending the session up 1.1%.

Notable is that volatility (as measured by the Volatility or VIX index), continued to drop significantly. In fact, the VIX has now reached a low not seen in 22 months. While this shows that investors do not expect the market to make a lot of gyrations, it can also signal investor complacency, a potentially bearish sign.

In economic news, the Labor Department released the latest numbers on the Producer Price Index (PPI). In February, the index declined 0.6% which is its largest drop in seven months (and exceeded analysts' expectations) . Excluding food and energy costs, the PPI was however up 0.1%, meeting consensus estimates.

An interesting note on the recent multi-week rally on the Dow: It has gained more than 800 points over the past five weeks, but the advances have come in steady, relatively small daily increments. This is a change of pattern form the one seen on the Dow over the past 12 months where the market recently would advance in 100-point or so moves and then stall out for a few days. The press explains this new pattern (which is calmer and more stair-step like) by suggesting the list of worries investors have has become smaller. High unemployment and great government debt remain, but other issues such as Dubai's or Greece's debt problems appear to be 'contained'. Furthermore, the Fed remains on hold and inflation is currently not a key issue.

Key economic data for the week starting March 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-06: n.a. / 4558K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-13: 450K / 462K CPI M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / -0.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb): 2.3% / 2.6% CPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.4% / 1.6% CURRENT ACCOUNT (Q4): -$119.8B / -$108.0B 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar): 17.6 / 17.6 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3%

It was a Fed day that brought more reason to

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Tuesday, March 16, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

It was a Fed day that brought more reason to celebrate for the bulls, at least that is being suggested in the financial press. Notably blue chips and financials gained after the Fed's announcement that it would keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low level. In fact, the Fed went as far as to renew its pledge to keep things exactly the way they are for an 'extended period'.

The underlying fundamental reason for the Fed's decision to remain on hold was that the economic situation is still weak enough to warrant 'exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.' Interestingly, one member of the Fed (Kansas City Fed president Hoenig) dissented from the otherwise unanimous Fed vote. According to the Fed statement, Hoenig 'believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to the buildup of financial imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability.' A warning about providing too much easy money?

In economic news, the newest housing data came in weak with US housing starts in February off some 5.9% (housing starts now stand at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 575,000). Partly to blame for the decline in the East and the South were several large snow storms. Housing starts were also off in the Northeast, but they were up in the Midwest and West. Building permits (which are much less affected by inclement weather) also lost ground, slipping 1.6% to 612,000 in February. Permits for single-family homes - considered a key indicator number - also declined, losing 0.2%.

In other news potentially supporting the US market, Greece was taken of the S&P credit watch. The US dollar weakened (and the euro and the British pound strengthened) after an announcement there now appears to be a consensus among European officials on how to proceed with financial aid to Greece, with bilateral loans playing a key role.

Key economic data for the week starting March 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 1.4% PPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3% PPI Y/Y (Feb) (H): 5.1% / 4.6% PPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.0% / 1.0%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-06: n.a. / 4558K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-13: 450K / 462K CPI M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / -0.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb): 2.3% / 2.6% CPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.4% / 1.6% CURRENT ACCOUNT (Q4): -$119.8B / -$108.0B 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar): 17.6 / 17.6 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3%

In spite of numerous headlines,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Monday, March 15, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

In spite of numerous headlines, the market traded without enthusiasm, losing a little and then gaining most of it back in yet another late-day rally. Many market participants are apparently in a holding pattern ahead of this week's meeting of the Federal Reserve. Overall trading volume was thus anemic. The Fed will offer its latest assessment of economic conditions and provide its outlook for monetary policy (interest rates) on Tuesday.

In the early going, the market suffered somewhat, with the periodically resurfacing fear that China is about to tighten its monetary policy in order to cool down its economy.

Among the economic data released today (which however did not affect today's trading to any significant extent), it was announced that February industrial production numbers came in with a gain of 0.1% (consensus estimates: a flat reading). Capacity utilization came in at 72.7%, matching expectations. The Empire Manufacturing Index for March reached a level of 22.9 (consensus estimates: a reading of 22.09); however, while the numbers beat expectations, the result was lower than that posted for February (where a reading of 24.9 on the index had been reached).

A financial reform proposal brought forth by Senator Dodd may have spooked investors in financial (banking) stocks. The proposal suggests stringent policies that limit the amount of risk major financial institutions may take on. In spite of an early setback, the KBW Bank Index ended the day with a 0.2% gain. The broader financial sector lost 0.1% after having been down as much as 1% during the day.

Key economic data for the week starting March 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb): 570K / 591K BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb): 610K / 622K IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 1.4% 2:15 PM FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT (Mar): 0.25% / 0.25%

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 1.4% PPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3% PPI Y/Y (Feb) (H): 5.1% / 4.6% PPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.0% / 1.0%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-06: n.a. / 4558K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-13: 450K / 462K CPI M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / -0.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb): 2.3% / 2.6% CPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.4% / 1.6% CURRENT ACCOUNT (Q4): -$119.8B / -$108.0B 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar): 17.6 / 17.6 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3%

Economic news released today was said to have

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Friday, March 12, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Economic news released today was said to have sent mixed messages - hence a directionless market according to financial news reporters. The newest consumer sentiment survey was disappointing but positive news emerged from the retail sales front.

The latest Advance Retail Sales Report for February showed a 0.3% increase in retail sales (excluding auto sales - a rise of 0.8%). This set of data beat expectations, as consensus estimates had been for a total retail sales decline of 0.2% (and an increase of 0.1% in sales excluding autos).

A more somber tone was however conveyed by the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey. In March, the data came in at 72.5 (consensus estimates; a reading of 74.0). February's reading had been at 73.5.

Even though the indexes have been on a tear over the past few weeks, a number of market analysts see a lack of conviction behind the move, as suggested by relatively weak volume. The major stumbling block from a fundamental perspective continues to be the poor labor market. Some market observers believe we could be trading range-bound at least until the Fed has given its latest verdict on interest rates (see economic data calendar below). On the other hand, from Monday to Thursday, a great deal of economic data will be released, so there should be a number of possible market catalysts.

Key economic data for the week starting March 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE) (Mar): 20.0 / 24.9 9:00 AM NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS) (Jan): n.a. / $63.3B 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Feb): 0.0% / 0.9% CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Feb) (M): 72.6% / 72.6% 1:00 PM NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Mar): 17 / 17

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb): 570K / 591K BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb): 610K / 622K IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Feb):' -0.2% / 1.4% 2:15 PM FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT (Mar): 0.25% / 0.25%

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 1.4% PPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3% PPI Y/Y (Feb) (H): 5.1% / 4.6% PPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.0% / 1.0%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Mar-06: n.a. / 4558K INITIAL CLAIMS Mar-13: 450K / 462K CPI M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.2% CPI M/M (core) (Feb): 0.1% / -0.1% CPI Y/Y (Feb): 2.3% / 2.6% CPI Y/Y (core) (Feb): 1.4% / 1.6% CURRENT ACCOUNT (Q4): -$119.8B / -$108.0B 10:00 AM PHILADELPHIA FED (Mar): 17.6 / 17.6 LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.3%

For those interested in market history,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Thursday, March 11, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

For those interested in market history, today is the 10th anniversary of the maximum extent of the 'technology bubble' where the NASDAQ peaked at a level of 5,000 points (in contrast: today, the Nasdaq Composite closed at roughly 2,368 points). Speaking of bullish news, the S&P 500 made a 17-month high today, as the strength of the recent rally confounds many, most of all the bears who claim the market is way ahead of itself given the still poor economic fundamentals (housing market, labor market, debt situation, etc.). Skeptics suggest that 'fundamentals don't matter' as they see this all as a liquidity-driven event with money trying to find a home in a (still) low-interest rate environment.

According to the press, stocks were subdued in the early going today because investors reacted cautiously to the news that Chinese consumer inflation had hit a 16-month high. Chinese authorities said the country's inflation rate was at 2.7% in February (January's reading: 1.5%), sparking fears interest rates could rise soon and that such a move would prompt a slowing of global economic growth.

Today's late-day rally was primarily attributed to strength in financials with Citigroup taking center stage. Citigroup's CEO announced today - the bank, one of the hardest hit by the financial crisis - was now on a path toward 'sustained profitability'. Citigroup stock rose by more than 5% today, on top of a recent surge which has taken it from roughly $3.40 per share at the beginning of the month to almost $4.20 today.

The latest economic data released today shows a decline in initial claims (workers filing for jobless benefits for the first time) to 462,000 last week. The decline (of 6,000 claims) was however not quite as large as economists had been predicting and thus did not suggest an increase in hiring or much improvement in the labor market.

Equities were also boosted by more M&A activity: Key oil player BP will acquire the exploration rights (for Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caspian Sea) from Devon Energy for $7 billion to. There has been increased activity in mergers and acquisitions in recent weeks. Some market observers say this points to more faith in an economic recovery; others however maintain that this often signals a top in the market.

Key economic data for the week starting March 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Friday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 0.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.6% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar P): 73.9 / 73.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.1% / -0.2%

Over the past few days,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, March 10, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Over the past few days, some financials in which the government has a large stake (AIG, Citigroup, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) have rallied strongly. Over the course of 5 sessions, AIG has shot from roughly $25 per share to approximately $36 per share. Citigroup has surged from $3.40 to over four dollars per share; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have shown similar, strong upside patterns. Part of the explanation is that Citigroup has engineered a successful offering of $2 billion in securities (trust preferred offering) and that this would allow it (and others) to free themselves from heavy federal backing sooner than previously expected. In other words, investors hope Washington will soon become less of a factor in the financial sector. There is however also speculation that the government is about to impose new short selling restrictions on names it backs, thereby igniting a short squeeze.

This week's first economic data was released today, showing that wholesale inventories declined 0.2% in January (consensus estimate: an increase of 0.2%). Some market observers believe that a reduction in wholesale inventories is a positive sign, in that it suggests that demand for products has increased rapidly in a growing economy. On the other hand, a decline in wholesale inventories can lead to a lower GDP.

In other key economic news, the US Treasury budget for February came in with a deficit of $220.9 billion (consensus estimate: $222.0 billion). Comparison: The deficit recorded one year ago (i.e., in February 2009) was smaller, coming in at $193.9 billion. Market observers suggest that neither the wholesale inventory data nor the Treasury budget had any clear bearing on today's equity trading action.

Key economic data for the week starting March 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Feb-27: n.a. / 4500K GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE (Jan): -$41.0B / -$40.2B

Friday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 0.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.6% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar P): 73.9 / 73.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.1% / -0.2%

For a second day in a row,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Tuesday, March 09, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

For a second day in a row, market participants were not able to react to any economic data releases (none are scheduled this week until Wednesday). There was however no shortage of press stories about how we are in a new bull market and how much the indexes have advanced since bottoming out at multi-year lows one year ago today. The question remains: is the market's advance (i.e., gains of some 70% in a year) outpacing the actual economic recovery? Much of the gains seen over the past year have been in anticipation of economic progress, but much of that has not yet occurred (e.g., actual job creation in the labor market; real improvements in the housing market). Some observers take the view that fundamentals have no bearing in this environment, as this rally is simply liquidity-driven (low interest rates; cheap money; risk taking backed by government bailout offers).

No doubt some profit taking would not be a surprise near current levels. Most of the indexes are at or near their January 2010 highs (from which we previously saw a sudden, forceful pullback, which putt many new investors quickly underwater), and many indexes appear rather stretched to the upside after long, relentless rallies (Russell 2000; Nasdaq 100, for instance). Some market observers believe the market could be vulnerable to a correction at these levels, but others say, the low-interest environment leaves money managers no alternative but to chase the market ever higher.

Tomorrow will see a return to economic data releases (monthly wholesale inventory data; monthly budget statement).

Key economic data for the week starting March 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.2% / -0.8% 2:00 PM TREASURY BUDGET (Feb): -$202.0B / -$42.6B

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Feb-27: n.a. / 4500K GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE (Jan): -$41.0B / -$40.2B

Friday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 0.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.6% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar P): 73.9 / 73.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.1% / -0.2%

No key economic data releases are scheduled until

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Monday, March 08, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

No key economic data releases are scheduled until Wednesday of this week. Market participants are therefore taking their cues from other events. According to many in the press, we are seeing a new bull market. In conjunction with stories about the one-year anniversary of what has been called a “historic rally from the depths of the worst bear market since the Great Depression”, journalists are reporting that there are good chances we are seeing a new bull market, although this year's gains are likely to be much more subdued than those seen in 2009 (after the March lows). On an interesting side note, it has been pointed out that yesterday’s high on the Russell 2000 index coincided with the March 2009 low on the S&P 500 (both sporting values of roughly 666 points).

In spite of all the talk about a new bull market, trading was lackluster and eventless today, with the major indexes flat or only very slightly higher after a very strong and prolonged rally. From a news flow perspective, there were virtually no catalysts such as market-moving corporate headlines and economic data releases. Today’s trading also occurred on the year’s second lowest overall volume output (barely 900 million shares on the NYSE).

Some enthusiasm may have resulted from the news that AIG has sold another of its divisions its American Life Insurance Company to MetLife for $15.5 billion. AIG is in the process of repaying substantial loans to the US government and is therefore liquidating assets.

Tech stocks outperformed modestly today, with the Nasdaq 100 index barely keeping a 9-day rally alive - after Wall Street darling Research in Motion benefitted from a brokerage upgrade.

Key economic data for the week starting March 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.2% / -0.8% 2:00 PM TREASURY BUDGET (Feb): -$202.0B / -$42.6B

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Feb-27: n.a. / 4500K GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE (Jan): -$41.0B / -$40.2B

Friday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 0.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.6% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar P): 73.9 / 73.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.1% / -0.2%

A huge wave of

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Friday, March 05, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

A huge wave of bullishness was seen today as the US Labor Department released the much awaited February jobs report. It showed that 36,000 more employees had lost their jobs in February and that the official unemployment rate remained relatively steady a 9.7%. The reason for the rejoicing mood on Wall Street was that these numbers (in spite of the fact that more jobs were being eliminated rather than new ones created) came in better than the 68,000 job losses that economists had been expecting. Also playing a positive role was the fact that the recent winter storms had not impacted these numbers more negatively (according to a note by the Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Over the past few days, we have been mentioning the remarkable performance of the Russell 200 index (which is well above its January 2010 highs while most other indexes are not and which gained an outsized 6.08% this week alone). This index is of importance because it is comprised of small-cap stocks. The recent surge in small-caps is an indication that investors are more willing to take larger risks; these stocks have a much higher volatility and lower cash reserves, but they have clearly been outperforming large-cap stocks. Market observers comment that increased risk taking shows investors believe (rightly or wrongly) the economy is on the mend.

Feeding bullishness further was a new government report by the Federal Reserve that said consumers started borrowing more again in January (largely attributable to an increase in the number of auto loans). The data is of significance because prior to this economic release, there were 11 consecutive months where consumer borrowing had declined. Economist hope that the new data reveals consumers are more willing to spend freely again.

Key economic data for the week starting March 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.2% / -0.8% 2:00 PM TREASURY BUDGET (Feb): -$202.0B / -$42.6B

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Feb-27: n.a. / 4500K GOODS & SERVICES TRADE BALANCE (Jan): -$41.0B / -$40.2B

Friday:
	8:30 AM RETAIL SALES M/M (Feb): -0.2% / 0.5% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Feb): 0.1% / 0.6% 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Mar P): 73.9 / 73.6 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Jan): 0.1% / -0.2%

Mixed signals from better-than-expected retail

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Thursday, March 04, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Mixed signals from better-than-expected retail sales in February but falling pending home sales in January (details below) left the market mostly flat for much of the session. A key reason investors and traders were reluctant to initiate large positions (as reflected in poor overall volume) was that tomorrow, the Labor Department will release its February employment figures, which many observers say are pivotal to determine whether the recession is truly ending or whether it could drag on (or worse, lead to a double-dip recession).

Economists expect tomorrow's data to show payrolls down by some 50,000 but for the official unemployment rate to come in around 9.8% (it is currently at 9.7%). The true rate of unemployment is however strongly higher, as the official unemployment rate excludes part-time workers wishing they had full-time work or those discouraged with the work search - true unemployment could be as high as 16.5%, some analysts say. On Wednesday, the ADP private survey of employers indicated that in February, there were more job losses in the private sector; however, the ADP data does not always correspond to the Labor Department reports.

Today saw the release of the most recent retail sales data (February same-store sales figures). Even though sales were expected to have been negatively impacted by a number of snowstorms and other severe weather across the US, some retailers (such as Target, for instance) reported an increase in same-store sales. In fact, of 28 retailers reporting sales, roughly three quarters appear to have topped analysts' expectations (producing a median upside surprise rate of just over 2%). Key player Wal-Mart did not report any retail sales data today; however the company made news by announcing an increase in its annual dividend (up 11% to now $1.21 per share).

Dampening investor enthusiasm was however the news by the National Association of Realtors that pending home sales contracts were down more than 7% in January (in a month-over-month comparison). The consensus estimate had been for an increase of one percent.

Key economic data for the week starting March 1, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Friday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Feb): -50K / -20K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Feb): 9.8% / 9.7% AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Feb): 0.0 / 0.2% 3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jan): -3.8B / -1.7B

Word of a long-awaited austerity plan (which

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, March 03, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Word of a long-awaited austerity plan (which incorporates civil service salary cuts and tax increases) submitted by Greece today was seen as an early catalyst for some further upside on the broad market. These early gains were however not sustainable, and the major indexes closed flat for the day. Market observers comment that even though the issue around Greece's debt may be settled for now, similar debt problems continue to persist in countries such as Portugal and Spain. Even though the US dollar showed weakness in view of a strengthening euro, US equities were not able to benefit a great deal from this (as they typically have done over the past months).

A number of economic data releases were overshadowed by investors' reluctance to place large bets ahead of Friday's pivotal jobs report. Volume on the NYSE was thus light, coming in at less than 1 billion shares. The ADP Employment Change Report - an indicator for private payrolls - often gives clues about the upcoming national jobs report. Today, ADP data for February indicated that 20,000 private payrolls had been lost last month. It was considered a positive number, because it met analysts' expectations, and because it represented the smallest number of job losses in a year.

Two further notable economic data releases: (1) The ISM Services Index for February exceeded consensus estimates (of a reading of 51), coming in at 53; this was the highest ISM services index reading since October 2007.

(2) The Federal Reserve released the latest edition of its Beige Book today, delivering nothing surprising. 12 Federal districts reported modest improvement in economic activity during February; consumer spending improved modestly in many districts. Blame the weather for slow economic growth: The recent snowstorms along the East Coast are mentioned in the Beige Book, as follows: 'Economic conditions continued to expand ... although severe snowstorms in early February held back activity.'

Key economic data for the week starting March 1, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY (Q3 R): 6.2% / 6.2% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 475K / 496K 10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.2% / 1.0%

Friday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Feb): -50K / -20K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Feb): 9.8% / 9.7% AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Feb): 0.0 / 0.2% 3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jan): -3.8B / -1.7B

US car sales data for February was released today

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Tuesday, March 02, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

US car sales data for February was released today after the market close. The press has of course been focusing strongly on Toyota's woes, which - as it runs out - are benefiting other carmakers. On balance, car sales were up 13% across the board, with all major automakers except Toyota profiting. Toyota lost market share (it now has 12.8% of the US market), slipping to its lowest market share level since the summer of 2005. Toyota plans to win back some ground by offering zero-percent financing; however, GM and Chrysler will likely match such deals. Ford showed the best performance in February: its sales were up 43%, and it outsold GM for the first time since August 1998.

Yesterday, we commented on rising M&A activity. More of that was seen today, with CF Industries offering to buy fertilizer maker Terra Industries and Dow Chemical Co. selling its Styron plastics business to private equity firm Bain Capital for $1.63 billion. Also, wireless chips and mobile technology maker Qualcomm made a stock buyback offer (of $3 billion) and announced it would raise its dividend by 12%.

With the market rising higher and higher (intraday, the Russell 2000 index traded above its January 2010 highs today), some market analysts think investors are becoming too complacent. They point to the market's 'fear gauge', the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, which dipped below 19 during today's session. Lower readings on the VIX suggest investors expect less volatility in the market. The last time the VIX went below 19, the Dow started to correct sharply in January 2010, pulling back from a 15-month high.

While investors have recently pushed equities higher on all news - whether good or bad - some analysts still think the Labor Department's February jobs report scheduled for release on Friday could have a market moving impact. Persistently high unemployment is seen as the largest stumbling block for a sustained economic recovery.

Key economic data for the week starting March 1, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Feb-01: -10K / -22K 10:00 AM ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING (Feb): 51.0 / 50.5

Thursday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY (Q3 R): 6.2% / 6.2% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 475K / 496K 10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.2% / 1.0%

Friday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Feb): -50K / -20K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Feb): 9.8% / 9.7% AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Feb): 0.0 / 0.2% 3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jan): -3.8B / -1.7B

We are seeing a great deal of bullish commentary

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Monday, March 01, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

We are seeing a great deal of bullish commentary in the press recently; this comes in conjunction with the market appearing to continue its recovery rally after the mid-January to early February sell-off. In fact, the Russell 200 index (IWM) has now almost recovered the entire pullback (up on 13 of 16 sessions). Today, the major indexes reached new one-month highs with some indexes now positive for the year. The Nasdaq Composite led the charge today, boosted by large-cap techs.

US stocks benefited from hopes for a bailout deal for Greece; a deal between the EU and Greece could be announced soon (potentially, it consists of state-owned European banks buying Greek government bonds).

A batch of economic data was released in the US today, including personal income data which saw a boost of 0.1% (consensus estimate: a gain of 1.4%). On the other hand, personal spending increased 0.5% in January (consensus estimate: a gain of 0.4%). Meanwhile, core personal consumption was flat and roughly in-line with consensus estimates.

In the manufacturing sector, the February ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 56.5 (consensus estimate: 57.9; prior month: 58.4). January construction spending was down 0.6% on a month-over-month comparison; this number matched consensus estimates.

A hot item today was the mergers and acquisitions sector, where a number of deals were reported (the press consistently points out that this bodes well for the economy as it shows confidence among corporations). Major deals reported: Merck KGaA (a German drug and chemical company) says it will acquire Millipore for more than $7 billion. This news boosted many other biotech and life science stocks. Beleaguered insurer AIG also made news today - the company is saying it will sell its pan-Asia insurance business to European insurer Prudential PLC for $35.5 billion in cash and stock.

Key economic data for the week starting March 1, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	5:00 PM NEW VEHICLE SALES (Jan): 10.5M / 10.8M

Wednesday:
	8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Feb-01: -10K / -22K 10:00 AM ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING (Feb): 51.0 / 50.5

Thursday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY (Q3 R): 6.2% / 6.2% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 475K / 496K 10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.2% / 1.0%

Friday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Feb): -50K / -20K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Feb): 9.8% / 9.7% AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Feb): 0.0 / 0.2% 3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jan): -3.8B / -1.7B

All the excitement happened early on today,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Friday, February 26, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

All the excitement happened early on today, with the rest of the session mired in listless, choppy action. Equities surged briefly following a report that German bank KFW Bank may buy Greek debt. Over the last few months, US dollar weakness has typically led to stock market gains, but not today. The euro gained strength today as a report suggested an upwardly revised UK GDP, putting pressure on the greenback.

The government presented the revisions of its fourth quarter GDP numbers, showing a headline annualized growth rate of 5.9%. While this was better than expected, the personal consumption component increased by only 1.7%, less than expected.

Another dour report surfaced from the housing sector where the number of existing home sales in January dipped (unexpectedly) by more than 7% month-over-month. The annualized rate is now at 5.05 million units; last December, it stood at 5.44 million units. The consensus estimate for January had been for 5.5 million units. Currently, the total housing inventory stands at 3.27 million existing homes for sale, a 7.8-month supply at the current rate of sales (in December 2009, there was a 7.2-month supply.

Directly related to the poor housing market is the news that mortgage finance company Fannie Mae (and its sister company Freddie Mac) continues to request more and more government assistance. Fannie Mae is asking the US government for yet another $15 billion (current total: $75 billion). Together, the bill for the two companies now stands at $126 billion. To make matters worse, Fannie Mae announced today it sees more losses ahead in 2010: The US unemployment rate continues to be high and Americans face millions of foreclosures. For 2009, Fannie Mae reported a loss of $74.4 billion (in 2008, the loss was $59.8 billion).

Key economic data for the week starting March 1, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM PERSONAL INCOME M/M (Jan): 0.4% / 0.4% PERSONAL SPENDING M/M (Jan): 0.4% / 0.2% 10:00 AM ISM - MANUFACTURING (Feb): 57.8 / 58.4 CONSTRUCTION SPENDING M/M (Jan): -0.5% / -1.2%

Tuesday:
	5:00 PM NEW VEHICLE SALES (Jan): 10.5M / 10.8M

Wednesday:
	8:15 AM ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE Feb-01: -10K / -22K 10:00 AM ISM - NON-MANUFACTURING (Feb): 51.0 / 50.5

Thursday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PRODUCTIVITY (Q3 R): 6.2% / 6.2% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 475K / 496K 10:00 AM FACTORY ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.2% / 1.0%

Friday:
	8:30 AM NON-FARM PAYROLLS (Feb): -50K / -20K UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Feb): 9.8% / 9.7% AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M (Feb): 0.0 / 0.2% 3:00 PM CONSUMER CREDIT (Jan): -3.8B / -1.7B

After a very shaky beginning,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Thursday, February 25, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

After a very shaky beginning, a downturn in the US dollar late in the day was seen as the catalyst for a stock rally in the afternoon. Early weakness appeared to be catalyzed by the perhaps diffuse fears about Greece's debt problem, an issue that appears to be resurrected by the press every now and then (and then forgotten for a while). Concerns have now resurfaced due to Standard & Poor's and Moody's saying they might further downgrade Greece's debt rating.

There were tangible reasons to be bearish (at least from a fundamental view) in regards to today's release of economic news. The newest jobless claims data was worse than expected, with the number of initial claims for the week ended Feb. 20 totaling 496,000. This means these claims have increased by 22,000 in one week. Worse still, the number of initial claims was the highest since November 2009. Continuing claims were also worse than expected, now up to 4.62 million.

IN other economic news, durable goods increased by more than economists had been expecting (up 3% in January); however, excluding transportation, they declined a surprising 0.6%.

On the housing front, more bad news: In December, US house prices lost 1.6% (consensus estimate: a rise of 0.4%).

Key economic data for the week starting February 22, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 A): 5.6% / 5.7% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 A): 0.6% / 0.6% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 5.50M / 5.45M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Jan): 0.9% / -16.7%

It was a poor news day for the US economic

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, February 24, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

It was a poor news day for the US economic recovery, but stocks rallied nonetheless. The following will explain why. According to the Commerce Department, in January the sales of new homes fell sharply, tumbling to a record low. New home sales numbers were down more than 11% from the previous month (declining to a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 309,000 units). This is a very poor number; in fact, it is the lowest level on record dating back close to half a century! Furthermore, new home prices fell further and housing inventory (i.e., months of supply) rose once again. In his testimony before congress (see below), Fed chairman Bernanke commented on commercial real estate, calling the sector 'the biggest credit issue we still have.'

The reason why stocks rallied today: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the House Financial Services Committee and in essence promised Wall Street that the flow of cheap money would continue for the time being. Bernanke reiterated that interest rates will remain at very low levels (for at least six months, according to some analysts) because the economic recovery is currently still very fragile. 'The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions -- including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.' Recent data has shown that inflation is currently not a major concern. The Fed therefore has some maneuvering room and can keep interest rates at low levels. Bernanke did however point out that at some point the Fed will have to start to tighten monetary conditions.

Critics comment that stock market gains continue to be premised on easy credit flowing into speculation (as opposed to investment), with the economy struggling from poor home sales, lower home prices, higher inventories, and with consumer confidence currently at very low levels.

In news impacting traders, the SEC voted 3-2 to today to restrict short sales in a new way: when a company's stock tumbles more than 10% in a given session, new short-selling curbs will be implemented which will remain in effect for the rest of the trading session as well as the next session. Critics call the new rule a 'public relations exercise' and say it could do more harm than good.

Key economic data for the week starting February 22, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.4% / 1.0% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Jan): 1.1% / 1.4% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 465K / 473K CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4563K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): n.a. / 0.3% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): n.a. / 17.6

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 A): 5.6% / 5.7% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 A): 0.6% / 0.6% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 5.50M / 5.45M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Jan): 0.9% / -16.7%

An unexpected slide in consumer confidence

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Tuesday, February 23, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

An unexpected slide in consumer confidence brought bearishness to the market, with the broad market seeing its largest one-day decline in approximately three weeks. According to the Conference Board, preliminary February consumer confidence numbers came in well below consensus expectations (at 46.0 versus 55.0). In comparison: January's reading had been at 56.5. Commentators point to a crucial part of the consumer confidence report called the Present Situation Index which crashed to a reading of 19.4 - a 27-year low:

Furthermore, consumers' short-term outlook also appeared dire, as fewer consumers are apparently anticipating that business conditions and the job market will improve over the coming six months. Consumers also rate their income prospects as being fairly poor at this time. According to the report, here are some examples of how consumers assess their present-day conditions: 'Good' down from 8.5% to 6.2%; business conditions considered 'bad': up to 46.3% from 44.7%; Jobs are 'hard to get': currently 47.7% (up from 46.5%).

Market analysts say that not only did the consumer confidence index decline, its current values are far from a level where they would indicate economic strength. Readings above 90 indicate a solid economy; currently, the index is however at only 46 points.

In other - more promising - news, Home Depot, Sears, Macy's and Target reported better-than-expected earnings today, although they suggested that sales growth is still sluggish - a sign that the beleaguered consumer is still not spending freely.

Key economic data for the week starting February 22, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 351K / 342K NEW HOME SALES M/M (Feb P): 2.6% / -7.6%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.4% / 1.0% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Jan): 1.1% / 1.4% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 465K / 473K CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4563K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): n.a. / 0.3% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): n.a. / 17.6

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 A): 5.6% / 5.7% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 A): 0.6% / 0.6% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 5.50M / 5.45M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Jan): 0.9% / -16.7%

Apart from some action early on as well as late

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Monday, February 22, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Apart from some action early on as well as late in the day (in both cases - bearish), today's session was uneventful and characterized by low volume (less than a billion shares were traded on the NYSE today). The broad market rolled over late in the day after rising slowly on low volume, bringing the first down-close in five sessions on the S&P 500 and on the Dow. There were no real catalysts for stocks today and no true leadership emerged: Financials were relatively strong while energy stocks performed poorly.

Some negative reaction was seen in the market following the news that President Obama was proposing to broaden the Medicare Hospital Insurance tax base as part of his revised health care reform plan.

With the recent hike in the discount interest rate, market participants fear the time for 'cheap money' may have come to an end. Today, the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve spoke at a University of San Diego's business school, reiterating that the currently very low interest rates should be maintained because inflation is 'undesirably low' and economic growth will probably remains sluggish for a number of years to come. Yellen was quoted as saying that 'Even though the recession appears to be over, it does not mean that we are where we want to be. Even with my moderate growth forecast, the economy will be operating well below its potential for several years', adding that 'I believe this is not the time to be removing monetary stimulus.'

Apart from a merger announcement (Thermo Fisher Scientific offered $6 billion for Millipore), things were also quiet on the corporate news releases front.

Key economic data for the week starting February 22, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX (Dec): n.a. / 146.28 S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Dec): -3.0% / -5.3% 10:00 AM RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Feb): n.a. / -2.0 CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Feb-03: n.a. / 55.9 5:00 PM ABC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Feb-14): n.a. / -49.0

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 351K / 342K NEW HOME SALES M/M (Feb P): 2.6% / -7.6%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.4% / 1.0% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Jan): 1.1% / 1.4% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 465K / 473K CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4563K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): n.a. / 0.3% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): n.a. / 17.6

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 A): 5.6% / 5.7% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 A): 0.6% / 0.6% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 5.50M / 5.45M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Jan): 0.9% / -16.7%

Many market commentators

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Friday, February 19, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Many market commentators had thought we would see more downside today, as yesterday's news release from the Fed in regard to higher rates at the discount window had originally rattled investors, sending futures down sharply overnight. Although the Fed has stressed again and again that this move would not lead to higher interest rates for consumers and businesses, many took the move as an initial signal that the central bank was now switching to a tightening monetary policy. One financial economist however called the change a 'pre-exit strategy move', saying that any actual exit strategy by the Fed was still several months away.

One of the explanations why futures pared their earlier, strong losses was that prior to the market open this morning, new government data revealed that inflationary pressures at the consumer level were not as strong in January as had been expected - consumer prices rose only marginally in (The Consumer Price Index gained 0.2%). Prices excluding food and energy even fell (off by 0.1%), for the first time since 1982 (consensus estimate: a monthly increase of 0.1%).

Other economic news came from the housing front where the Mortgage Bankers Association provided a mixed report: While there was a sharp decline in the number of new borrowers falling behind on their mortgage payments, a record number of people are currently behind on their payments, or they are currently facing foreclosure.

Key economic data for the week starting February 22, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	8:30 AM CHICAGO PMI (Feb): 59.0 / 61.5

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM S&P CASE SHILLER INDEX (Dec): n.a. / 146.28 S&P CASE SHILLER Y/Y (Dec): -3.0% / -5.3% 10:00 AM RICHMOND FED MANUF. INDEX (Feb): n.a. / -2.0 CONF.BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Feb-03: n.a. / 55.9 5:00 PM ABC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Feb-14): n.a. / -49.0

Wednesday:
	10:00 AM NEW HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 351K / 342K NEW HOME SALES M/M (Feb P): 2.6% / -7.6%

Thursday:
	8:30 AM DURABLE GOODS ORDERS M/M (Jan): 1.4% / 1.0% DURABLE GOODS ORDERS EX-TRANS M/M (Jan): 1.1% / 1.4% INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 465K / 473K CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4563K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Feb): n.a. / 0.3% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): n.a. / 17.6

Friday:
	8:30 AM GDP (annualized) (Q4 A): 5.6% / 5.7% GDP DEFLATOR (annualized) (Q4 A): 0.6% / 0.6% 9:45 AM CHICAGO PMI 9:55 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT 10:00 AM EXISTING HOME SALES SAAR (Jan): 5.50M / 5.45M EXISTING HOME SALES M/M (Jan): 0.9% / -16.7%

After the bell today,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Thursday, February 18, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

After the bell today, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise its discount rate (the rate it charges banks for emergency loans) from 0.50% to 0.75%, suggesting that borrowing costs for consumers and corporations will however remain unaffected (the Fed's benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at very low levels). In a statement, the Fed said 'The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy'. Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had hinted at a coming discount rate. In reaction to the move by the Fed, the US dollar strengthened immediately.

Prior to the Fed's move, the broad market continued to rally ecstatically off the early February lows. Trading had been confined to a tight range until the early afternoon, where an upside breakout brought further solid gains. Market observers commented negatively on the weak overall volume output (a measure of conviction) which came in at less than 1 billion shares on the NYSE (the weakest volume output in a month).

In notable earnings news, Hewlett-Packard boosted the tech sector after reporting positive earnings last night. Retail giant Wal-Mart reported better-than-expected earnings and provided guidance in-line with expectations; however, the company said its fourth quarter US comparable store sales declined more than analysts had expected. After the bell, Dell reported weak earnings and saw its stock sell off by roughly 5%.

Among today's more notable economic data releases, the number of weekly jobless claims for the week ending February 13 rose unexpectedly by 31,000 from the previous week, totaling 473,000 (consensus estimate: 438,000). Continuing claims came in flat at 4.56 million (consensus estimate: 4.50 million). On the inflation front, we saw a sharper than expected increase in the Producer Price Index for January; it was up 1.4% month-over-month (consensus estimate: an increase of 0.8%). Even when food and energy are excluded from the calculations, the PPI was still up 0.3% month-over-month, more than the consensus increase of 0.1% economists had been predicting.

Key economic data for the week starting February 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Friday:
	8:30 AM CPI M/M (Jan): 0.3% / 0.1% CPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.2% / 0.1% CPI Y/Y (Jan) (H): 2.8% / 2.7% CPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 1.8% / 1.8%

Today's session was choppy but maintained the

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, February 17, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Today's session was choppy but maintained the recent upward bias on the major indexes. A bullish intraday bias was attributed to a number of better-than-expected economic news releases (see below for details), strong overseas stock market gains, as well as positive earnings from Deere. (Hewlett-Packard also reported positive earnings, but these came after the market close today). On the other hand, overall volume output was not very encouraging according to market analysts, with just over 1 billion shares traded on the NYSE.

According to the Commerce Department, in January the construction of homes and apartments came in better than expected, rising to an annualized 591,000 units (consensus estimate: a rise to 580,000 units). Market observers are once again commenting that this signals a stabilizing, if not improving, housing market. In contrast, the number of applications for building permits, an indicator considered a barometer of future activity, was however off by nearly 5%.

In other economic news that is perhaps portending an economic recovery, the Federal Reserve reported that production at US factories, mines and utilities was up 0.9% in January percent last month (consensus estimate: a gain of 0.6%). Notable is that this was a seventh consecutive month of growth in this sector.

The Fed's minutes from its last policy meeting were released today, showing an overall upbeat assessment by the central bank's policymakers. The Fed generally remains optimistic, boosted its 2010 GDP forecast from 3% to 3.2%, and expects the currently very elevated unemployment rate to begin edging down in 2011. Analysts however point out that despite this positive assessment, the Fed believed it was necessary to maintain interest rates at exceptionally low levels.

Key economic data for the week starting February 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Jan): 0.8% / 0.2% PPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.1% / 0.0% PPI Y/Y (Jan): 4.4% / 4.4% PPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 0.8% / 0.9% CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4538K INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 445K / 440K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Jan): 0.5% / 1.1% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): 17.5 / 15.2

Friday:
	8:30 AM CPI M/M (Jan): 0.3% / 0.1% CPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.2% / 0.1% CPI Y/Y (Jan) (H): 2.8% / 2.7% CPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 1.8% / 1.8%

The market has returned to a pattern of showing

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Tuesday, February 16, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

The market has returned to a pattern of showing pronounced strength on the first day of a trading week, something we have been seeing with great regularity since the March 2009 lows. In fact, market- wide today's session brought the strongest single-session advance (on a percentage basis) we have seen in three months. The day was overwhelmingly bullish, with almost 95% of all S&P stocks making an advance. Given weakness in the US dollar, energy stocks made the strongest advances (driven by a 3.9% advance in crude oil). Silver shot 4.5% higher and gold was up 2.7%. The CRB Commodity Index surged a strong 2.6%.

Speaking of the US dollar, it dropped sharply today, sagging 0.9% against a basket of foreign currencies. This was the greenback's strongest slide since late November; it came amid a calming of fears surrounding Greece's debt problems. Greece has been formally given some time by the EU to work through its debt issues (i.e., get its budget under control); a potential bailout of the country by other EU nations has not been ruled out. Debt problems linger on in other EU countries as well, for instance in Portugal, Spain, and Ireland.

In economic news, the Empire State manufacturing index - a report on the state of manufacturing in the New York area - climbed to a reading of 24.91 this month, up from a value of 15.92 in January. Economists had been expecting to see a reading of 18.

Key economic data for the week starting February 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Jan); 0.8% / 0.0% BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb P): 620K / 653K HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb P): 580K / 557K 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Jan): 0.8% / 0.6% CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Jan): 72.6% / 72.0% 2:00 PM Minutes of Jan. 27th FOMC Meeting

Thursday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Jan): 0.8% / 0.2% PPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.1% / 0.0% PPI Y/Y (Jan): 4.4% / 4.4% PPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 0.8% / 0.9% CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4538K INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 445K / 440K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Jan): 0.5% / 1.1% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): 17.5 / 15.2

Friday:
	8:30 AM CPI M/M (Jan): 0.3% / 0.1% CPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.2% / 0.1% CPI Y/Y (Jan) (H): 2.8% / 2.7% CPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 1.8% / 1.8%

The financial press attributes today's early

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Friday, February 12, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

The financial press attributes today's early weakness on the major indexes (which was quite pronounced) to US dollar strength prompted by a GDP reading from the EU which was weaker than expected. The euro was weak in spite of support for Greece pledged by the IMF and the European Central Bank.

A further contributing factor to a weak start for US equities came from China: Chinese authorities raised bank reserve requirements in order to slow lending. China has thus progressed from a stimulus situation to one where it is trying to curtail or at least stabilize its rapid growth. Market observers comment that China's second move in about a month to cool its credit market was engineered in order to prevent a bubble in Chinese equities and real estate. It is yet another sign that the times of free (stimulus) money and near zero interest rates may be coming to an end.

In the US, new economic data on advance retail sales came in stronger than economists had been expecting. The new data shows that retails sales in January were up 0.5% (plus 0.6% excl. auto sales). However, enthusiasm for this positive retail data may have been tempered by a lower-than-anticipated reading on the (preliminary) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for February (which came in at a reading of 73.7), as well as by a 0.2% decrease in December business inventories.

Key economic data for the week starting February 15, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Monday:
	Markets Closed for Presidents Day

Tuesday:
	8:30 AM NEW YORK FED (EMPIRE) (Feb): 17.7 / 15.9 NET CAPITAL INFLOWS (TICS) (Dec): $50.0B / $126.8B 1:00 PM NAHB HOUSING INDEX (Feb): 15 / 15 5:00 PM ABC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Feb-14): n.a. / -48.0

Wednesday:
	8:30 AM IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M (Jan); 0.8% / 0.0% BUILDING PERMITS SAAR (Feb P): 620K / 653K HOUSING STARTS SAAR (Feb P): 580K / 557K 9:15 AM INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M (Jan): 0.8% / 0.6% CAPACITY UTILIZATION (Jan): 72.6% / 72.0% 2:00 PM Minutes of Jan. 27th FOMC Meeting

Thursday:
	8:30 AM PPI M/M (Jan): 0.8% / 0.2% PPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.1% / 0.0% PPI Y/Y (Jan): 4.4% / 4.4% PPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 0.8% / 0.9% CONTINUING CLAIMS (Feb): n.a. / 4538K INITIAL CLAIMS (Feb): 445K / 440K 10:00 PM LEADING INDICATORS M/M (Jan): 0.5% / 1.1% PHILADELPHIA FED (Feb): 17.5 / 15.2

Friday:
	8:30 AM CPI M/M (Jan): 0.3% / 0.1% CPI M/M (core) (Jan): 0.2% / 0.1% CPI Y/Y (Jan) (H): 2.8% / 2.7% CPI Y/Y (core) (Jan): 1.8% / 1.8%

European debt concerns continued to dictate

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Thursday, February 11, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

European debt concerns continued to dictate trading on Wall Street, with investors applauding the growing potential for a EU bailout of Greece. While details need to be finalized (which likely will not happen until early next week), it now appears a given that European leaders have pledged some kind of financial support for Greece. The fact that some kind of plan appears to be in the works was positive enough to rally the market today, even though a potential bailout would be precedent-setting and might inspire other debt-laden EU countries (such as Portugal, Spain, and perhaps Ireland) to clamor for help.

Likely acting as a bullish catalyst as well was a new government report showing labor market improvements. The good news was that applications for jobless insurance declined strongly and by more than economists had anticipated, sinking to a one-year low last week. Weekly initial jobless claims declined to 440,000 and continuing claims now total 4.54 million

Among Dow stocks, a broker upgrade boosted 3M on the basis of increased margins and a higher growth rate. Caterpillar rallied most among Dow stocks today based on news from China that that country will see more lending but less inflation. China is the world's largest user of base metals - the news boosted the materials sector and Caterpillar, a large maker of mining equipment.

Key economic data for the week starting February 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Friday:
	8:30 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Feb P): 74.8 / 74.4

For quite some time,

noreply@noemail.com (HGH Press) — Wednesday, February 10, 2010 13:30:00 +0000

For quite some time, investors have been bracing for the day that higher interest rates are announced. Today, comments made by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke may have provided a potential warning sign, even if it was a camouflaged one. The Fed must at one point begin to wind down its easy money policy, and slowly dismantle the many emergency support measures it put in place in order to support and stimulate the US economy. Bernanke read a prepared statement today in which he announced the Fed likely will begin tightening credit by possibly raising its discount rate (which would later trickle down to higher rates for consumers and businesses). The Fed Chairman however said interest rates would not be raised directly at this time.

For a number of reasons, today's overall volume output was very light (i.e., less than 1 billion shares on the NYSE). Some large traders were absent due to snowstorms, and it appears investors may be adopting a wait-and-see attitude in regard to news flow from Europe (Greece).

In the meantime, intensive talks continue in Europe where a possible bailout (i.e., loan guarantees) for debt-stricken Greece is being discussed. There is no clear procedure for such measures in the EU however; considerable investor uncertainty remains, for instance regarding a rumor that Germany might spearhead a bailout for Greece.

The Commerce Department provided new data on the US trade deficit today, saying that in December 2009 it was more than 10% above the deficit recorded in November. Coming in at a larger-than-expected $40.18 billion in December, the US trade deficit was in fact the largest seen in a year.

Key economic data for the week starting February 8, 2010. Numbers shown are consensus estimates (market anticipates this value) and prior value.

Thursday:
	8:30 AM CONTINUING CLAIMS Jan-30: n.a. / 4602K INITIAL CLAIMS Feb-6: n.a. / 480K RETAIL SALES M/M (Jan): 0.3% / -0.3% RETAIL SALES (X-AUTOS) M/M (Jan): 0.4% / -0.2% 10:00 AM BUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M (Dec): 0.4% / 0.4%

Friday:
	8:30 AM MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT (Feb P): 74.8 / 74.4